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I think we will see very high quality LED fixtures in the $150-$200 range next year.

Discussion in 'Lighting, Filtration & Other Equipment' started by cvcdrk, Jul 21, 2012.

  1. cvcdrk

    cvcdrk

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    There's a good chance.

    Laws of economics says the prices will continue to drop.

    I'm talking about the really high quality fixtures with the advanced controllers and full-spectrum outputs.

    I can't wait!
     
    cvcdrk, Jul 21, 2012
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  2. cvcdrk

    Smitty

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    Re: I think we will see very high quality LED fixtures in the $150-$200 range next ye

    We'll see. :)
     
    Smitty, Jul 21, 2012
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  3. cvcdrk

    nyquist

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    Re: I think we will see very high quality LED fixtures in the $150-$200 range next ye

    I'm pretty hopeful that prices will continue to drop quickly, but I'm not holding my breath for $150-$200 for a fancy fixture any time soon :p
    Yes, prices are going to continue to drop, but they're not going to drop that much


    A nice microcontroller and power supply for a 60W or 100W LED fixture is still going to run near $100 if you have more than a few independently controlled channels and those prices are not coming down much (if at all); the LED chips themselves are going to get cheaper, but not that much cheaper


    We shall see
     
    nyquist, Jul 21, 2012
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  4. cvcdrk

    bigford fish only

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    Re: I think we will see very high quality LED fixtures in the $150-$200 range next ye

    it happened with flat screen TV's back in the day my old
    boss spent $10,000 to have the biggest badest f/s. Two
    years later you could buy the same TV for $3000.00
     
    bigford, Jul 21, 2012
    #4
  5. cvcdrk

    RockStacker

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    Re: I think we will see very high quality LED fixtures in the $150-$200 range next ye

    That was just Technology Premium taking effect. That TV probably cost somewhere around $1600.00 to produce and market. The markup is profit, and marketers know that tech savvy people are willing to pay the premium to be the first to get the biggest baddest toys.
    Once the demand cools down, they bring down the prices to realistic values.

    With the high end LED fixtures, they are already running pretty close to their manufacturing and marketing costs. They could lower their profit per unit with the justification that lowering the market price will open up more buyers.
    But realistically I do not see the price of a $750.00 unit going lower than $500.00 as the market evens out.
    Of course, when newer technology arrives, the price discussion for current tech becomes moot.
     
    RockStacker, Jul 21, 2012
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  6. cvcdrk

    Nonfamous

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    Re: I think we will see very high quality LED fixtures in the $150-$200 range next ye

    I'm just curious since I'm up grading at the moment, what do you consider when you say high quality? Not being snotty, I'm sincerely interested. For example, is it the type of LED? Wattage of LED? Optics? PAR readings? Feel? Other?
     
    Nonfamous, Jul 23, 2012
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  7. cvcdrk

    nyquist

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    Re: I think we will see very high quality LED fixtures in the $150-$200 range next ye

    combination of the type of LEDs, quality of the build, color combos, and likely with a built-in controller and sleek look
     
    nyquist, Jul 23, 2012
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  8. cvcdrk

    Bifferwine I am a girl

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    Re: I think we will see very high quality LED fixtures in the $150-$200 range next ye

    I don't know... you can't even find quality metal halide or T5 fixtures in that price range.
     
    Bifferwine, Jul 23, 2012
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  9. cvcdrk

    BL1 ............. Moderator

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    Re: I think we will see very high quality LED fixtures in the $150-$200 range next ye

    I would also add R&D and product testing to that list. The higher end LED have spectrum tests, software testing, software updates for future upgrades and features. The cheap Chinese fixtures on eBay won't have any of that. Not to mention, lights like the AIs have removable LED modules. That way when new tech comes out, there's no resoldering new LEDs in, just remove the puck and replace it.
     
    BL1, Jul 23, 2012
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  10. cvcdrk

    RockStacker

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    Re: I think we will see very high quality LED fixtures in the $150-$200 range next ye

    It will be a combination of all those factors that you have listed.
    Ideally, an excellent fixture will be designed properly and use high quality materials, and of course excellent output in terms of light quality and intensity.
    Having a solid company to back up the product is also a big plus, specially if they have a long history of delivering products that make customers happy.
     
    RockStacker, Jul 23, 2012
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  11. cvcdrk

    fastrd400 It wasn't me! Moderator

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    Re: I think we will see very high quality LED fixtures in the $150-$200 range next ye

    No you won't. Nor can you compare the technology of our lighting to T.V.'s. Every house has a T.V. How many houses on your block have a reef tank?
     
    fastrd400, Jul 24, 2012
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  12. cvcdrk

    Kelz88 Got Reef?

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    Re: I think we will see very high quality LED fixtures in the $150-$200 range next ye

    In my community there are 3 saltwater tanks. I own them all lol.
     
    Kelz88, Jul 24, 2012
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  13. cvcdrk

    Northstar24 The Tang Herder

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    Re: I think we will see very high quality LED fixtures in the $150-$200 range next ye

    There is no way you'll get a quality full spectrum fixture line a radion for $150 in a year. You might have the cheap Chinese knock off crap, but even those are running more than $150

    You forgot one of the rules of economics with your tv example... Economies of scale. There are probably 1000 flat screen TV's or widescreen computer monitors sold for every reef capable Led fixture
     
    Northstar24, Jul 24, 2012
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  14. cvcdrk

    Nonfamous

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    Re: I think we will see very high quality LED fixtures in the $150-$200 range next ye

    I think that the LED technology will be developing very fast and will overflow into the reef community. LED's are being used more and more in all kinds of industry. From TVs to Automobiles.

    The R&D that will be successful in making reef fixtures will actually be done by another industry. The more they are used, the less they will cost. At some point however, they may well develop themselves right out of existence. Well, it would be better to say that LEDs will be developed to the point that they will last longer and cost so much less that many manufactures will not be able to compete in such a low margin business.

    If you want to compare quality lets take two cars. Ferrari and say Hyundai. Now on the surface Ferrari would seem to be the builder of quality cars. MANY years of R&D, history and beauty. Hyundai, a relatively new company doesn't have that history and relies heavily on others R&D. In reality, if you want good, reliable transportation, the Hyundai is a better buy. You can't beat the warranty either. Having owned a Ferrari (88.5 328 GTB) I can tell you Quality is NOT something I would equate to that high priced product. Sure, it looks good and performs well......when it works. Lots of the time however, it fails to perform. (I don't own a Hyundai either.)

    Maybe not in a year, but soon, you will see low priced, good quality, LED fixtures for our use. Having just purchased two of the cheap units myself, I'd say they were of pretty good quality. Well built with good materials. Quality? Maybe.
     
    Nonfamous, Jul 24, 2012
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  15. cvcdrk

    Northstar24 The Tang Herder

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    Re: I think we will see very high quality LED fixtures in the $150-$200 range next ye

    So first you want to compare flat screen televisions to reef capable LED fixtures, then you continue your example by comparing a Ferrari to a Hyundai? A Ferrari from the 80's and a modern Hyundai are apples to oranges. Hyundai's quality was so bad when they first started selling cars in the US that they actually pulled out of the North American market. They offered the 10 year warranty when they came back as a way to try to get consumers to forget about the terrible quality from when they were first sold in the states. Things didn't turn around for them until they brought in the same people that turned around Porshe when they had issues

    LED tech is growing very rapidly, but spectrum is far less of a concern in most LED applications. Cost is partially a function of number of units sold, so the good LED fixtures will always carry some of that built into the price.

    As far as the knock off fixtures go, they are very hit or miss. Some people have very good success with them, and others do not. I know of two local reefers that bought the Taotronics fixtures and threw them in the garbage after 6 months, one went back to Halide lighting and the other dropped money for Radions because he wanted a company with proven products and customer service - you'll never get that from Ebay knock offs
     
    Northstar24, Jul 24, 2012
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  16. cvcdrk

    Nonfamous

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    Re: I think we will see very high quality LED fixtures in the $150-$200 range next ye

    Okay then let's compare 80's Ferrari to 80's Toyota, the Toyota is better quality. No I don't own a Toyota either. I did own both 70's and 80's toyotas though. They were by far more reliable than the Ferrari.

    What's you issue with comparisons? Fact is R&D in the field of LEDs is expanding rapidly, comparison with other products does apply as it does in other manufacturing and as the over all progress continues, value will spill over into our unique area. Affordable lights will be in our hands within the decade. What's the problem with that?
     
    Nonfamous, Jul 24, 2012
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  17. cvcdrk

    Kelz88 Got Reef?

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    Re: I think we will see very high quality LED fixtures in the $150-$200 range next ye

    We can get cheap ferraris? WHERE lol
     
    Kelz88, Jul 24, 2012
    #17
  18. cvcdrk

    Nonfamous

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    Re: I think we will see very high quality LED fixtures in the $150-$200 range next ye

    Actually, yes you can. Depends on what you consider cheap! I know where a couple of 410s are for under 10k. 308's will run you under 30k for a REAL nice one. There's a 512 TR close to me for 40k (1985) and I have seen a 612 for under 90k. Its all about your perspective!

    There was a time when a few LARGE American companies made "quality" products with decades of history and R&D behind them. Their warranty service sucked, their service sucked, their materials sucked but they were all touted a quality products..... Ford, GM, AMC and Chrysler. You can go back to the early 70's with Toyota and Datsun too.

    Remember the $20,000 Pioneer Flat Panel TVs? They sucked but research from the broad based industry (LED/LCD/Plasma) made them better and cheaper. Visio was a cheap knock off. So was Gateway. So was Levono. Add LG to that too.

    One of these cheap Chinese/eBay knock offs might well have hit, or be about to hit, the mark and we won't know it for another year or two. Then they will be household names.

    I had never heard of most of the big names in aquarium supplies until I started. I'm still not sure which ones have quality or which ones are knock offs. Skimmers were unheard of decades ago. They were invented at great cost and now are common place. Even the cheap ones do a pretty good job. I haven't had to warranty anything for my tank. Very few things in my life. Usually cars. Honestly, there is very little difference between the warranty on the Originals and the knock offs. (Audi/GM vs. Toyota/Infiniti unless you wanna talk about BMW warranty. But this is a fish forum and not an auto blog and I'm trying to keep things kid friendly! No, I don't like BMW.)
     
    Nonfamous, Jul 24, 2012
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  19. cvcdrk

    fastrd400 It wasn't me! Moderator

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    Re: I think we will see very high quality LED fixtures in the $150-$200 range next ye

    I'm with Northstar on this. While the technology may be there for the price drop in the future, the fact is, that with all other LED markets i.e. cars, home lighting, etc the cost is much lower do to the fact that all they need to do is illuminate and not keep something(s) living and healthy under a spectrum of color, and the ability to change an intensity.
     
    fastrd400, Jul 24, 2012
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  20. cvcdrk

    Nonfamous

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    Re: I think we will see very high quality LED fixtures in the $150-$200 range next ye

    I guess only time will prove one of the camps right then! Smile, it's a good day!
     
    Nonfamous, Jul 25, 2012
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